Old Town Newhall: Big Box, Medium Box, Anyone?

167526 Resource 135547 120144 120144 1177775367696 1206981130782 Controlled Old Town Newhall: List of Potential Retailers

How will the Downtown Newhall area attract more sales tax dollars?

This is Part V of a multi-part series looking at the December 2006 study (the <a title="Newhall Retail Opportunities Analysis" href="http://www.oldtownnewhall.com/city/otn/pdf/NMS-FinalReport.pdf" target="_blank">Retail Opportunities Analysis</a> or ROA) on the <a title="Old Town Newhall Revitalization Project" href="http://www.oldtownnewhall.com/city/otn/development/index.php" target="_blank">Old Town Newhall Revitalization Project</a>. In <a title="Part I: Old Town Newhall Revitalization Project" href="item/166793" target="_blank">Part I</a>, we looked at an overview of the <a title="Newhall Retail Opportunities Analysis" href="http://www.oldtownnewhall.com/city/otn/pdf/NMS-FinalReport.pdf" target="_blank">Retail Opportunities Analysis</a>. In <a title="Old Town Newhall Revitalization Part II" href="item/166907" target="_blank">Part II</a>, we looked at local businesses targeted for removal. In <a title="Old Town Newhall Part III" href="item/167169" target="_blank">Part III</a>, we looked at creating a boutique environment in the Downtown Newhall area as well as attracting customers to that area. In <a title="Old Town Newhall Part IV" href="item/167331" target="_blank">Part IV</a>, we looked at attracting big-box and medium-box retailers to the Downtown Newhall area. In this installment, we'll look at the potential upscale retailers as well as the bottom line on this whole flawed retail study.<h1>Potential Upscale Retailers… The Short List</h1>The <a title="Newhall Retail Opportunities Analysis" href="http://www.oldtownnewhall.com/city/otn/pdf/NMS-FinalReport.pdf" target="_blank">Retail Opportunities Analysis</a> (ROA) reviewed 135 of the most common upscale retailers that would likely generate discretionary shopping trips to the area. Among the key players named were Banana Republic, Barnes and Noble (or Border's books), Gap, Pottery Barn, Talbot's, Victoria’s Secret and Williams Sonoma. But wait! We already have almost all of those here, and most of them are at the <a title="Valencia Town Center Mall" href="http://westfield.com/valencia/" target="_blank">Valencia Town Center Mall</a>! There were plenty of other chain-type retailers identified as "potentials" only because of their limited presence in the region, but there's no way of knowing if any of these would actually commit to a new location in Downtown Newhall, let alone anywhere else in the Santa Clarita Valley. These, as well as any other retail store or restaurant, would have to be convinced that there was enough potential business for them before they'd relocate or open new stores here. So, again, we're looking at that requirement to attract shoppers from at least 15 minutes away to make this work. And, since many of these stores have already turned down opportunities to have a presence in the <a title="Valencia Town Center Mall" href="http://westfield.com/valencia/" target="_blank">Valencia Town Center Mall</a>, it's likely that they just don’t see that there's enough potential in the Santa Clarita Valley yet, Newhall or not. The ROA does recognize that attracting many of these more upscale retailers is more of a long-term proposition, so that puts many of the income projections on indefinite hold until these retailers decide to open their doors here. Also, remember that what the ROA mapped as a 15-minute drive time zone was really closer to a <a title="Attracting Shoppers" href="item/167169" target="_blank">30-minute zone</a>, which means that fewer shoppers will travel to the Old Town Newhall area for these shopping trips than the ROA would want you to believe.Of the 135 upscale retailers listed, 20 of these are considered to be "key" lifestyle merchants. Of this top-20 list, 13 are already present in the Valencia area, and one more (Eddie Bauer) was present here but recently closed its doors. That leaves only six potentials, including Crate and Barrel, Williams Sonoma, Restoration Hardware, Children's Place, J. Crew and Coldwater Creek.The remaining list of "other" lifestyle merchants focused on the stores that are not represented at all in this region. These include Adrienne Vittadini, Bailey, Banks and Biddle, Brooks Brothers, Burberry, an abundance of jewelry stores, Cole Haan, Container Store, Le Gourmet Chef, Max Studio, Nordic Track, Origins (they're already present at Macy's), Orvis, Petite Sophisticate, Smith & Hawken, Tommy Bahama, and a handful of other clothing stores. Only 43 stores were identified as having no regional presence, and of those, many were multiple stores of the same brand (such as Talbot's Kids, Talbot's Men, Talbot's Petites and Talbot's Woman… we already have a standard Talbot's at Valencia Town Center Mall). And included in this 43 are Sak's Fifth Avenue, Dillard's and Gottschalk's, which aren't likely to move into a previously unestablished area unless they see HUGE potential in the population mix. So let's nix those as well.This means that we have maybe 35 true "potential" upscale boutique retail stores based solely on their lack of presence in the region after removing the duplicates such as the various Talbot's stores, unless some of the retailers already present in the region would choose to open another store in this area. It would be great to see some of these retailers open stores in the Santa Clarita area, but the data just doesn't seem to be in favor of this happening in the Old Town Newhall area.<h1>What's the Bottom Line on These Stores?</h1>With zero big-box stores, one "long-shot" medium box store, a marginal opportunity for a movie theatre, a possible gym (Bally's or Gold's) and a marginal opportunity for a drug store, the <a title="Newhall Retail Opportunities Analysis" href="http://www.oldtownnewhall.com/city/otn/pdf/NMS-FinalReport.pdf" target="_blank">Retail Opportunities Analysis</a> (ROA) identified 140,000 square feet of retail space to be used by "significant" tenants. This is broken down as follows:<table style="WIDTH: 80%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1" align="center" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Store Type</td><td>Square Footage</td></tr><tr><td>Big Box</td><td>None</td></tr><tr><td>Medium Box</td><td>None</td></tr><tr><td>Movie Theatre</td><td>60,000</td></tr><tr><td>Fitness Center</td><td>25,000</td></tr><tr><td>Office Depot</td><td>35,000</td></tr><tr><td>Drug Store</td><td>20,000</td></tr></tbody></table> If you remove the Office Depot (there's one in Valencia already), the movie theatre (can Newhall really support this with two existing in the SCV already and with two others closing their doors in recent years?), and the drug store (these tend to be more local-serving and there's already a Rite-Aid nearby), what's left is only 25,000 square feet of space used for the fitness center (projected to be Bally's or Gold's). Even the fitness center may be a long shot with plenty of them in the Santa Clarita area already, and remember that Gold's has already come and gone in the Santa Clarita area in recent years. Also, Newhall's <a title="Santa Clarita Athletic Club" href="http://www.thescac.com/" target="_blank">Santa Clarita Athletic Club</a> is scheduled for upgrading as part of the planned <a title="Smiser Mule Ranch " href="item/121217" target="_blank">Smiser Ranch</a> "The Commons" project, with new facilities and increased space.Wow... with no fitness center, that would take the total projected retail space down to ZERO other than restaurants, furniture stores and boutique stores! And it's not likely that these other businesses can be attracted to the area without the customer traffic that would be generated by the larger stores.So, we're left with maybe 35 "potential" boutique-type stores that were identified mainly because they don't have a presence in the region already (and it doesn't appear that these were approached to see if they were even interested) as well as possibly a restaurant or two, and maybe an unidentified furniture store or two. Another factor that is not considered in the ROA is upcoming competition, in the form of "The Commons" development on the old <a title="Smiser Mule Ranch" href="item/121217" target="_blank">Smiser Ranch</a> property at Calgrove and the I-5 freeway. With great freeway visibility and easy access, it's highly likely that retailers will choose "The Commons" over Old Town Newhall, assuming that the cost of buying or leasing space will be roughly equal for the two developments.One of the final statements in the <a title="Newhall Retail Opportunities Analysis" href="http://www.oldtownnewhall.com/city/otn/pdf/NMS-FinalReport.pdf" target="_blank">Retail Opportunities Analysis</a> (ROA) shows just how wishy-washy this plan is: "Of course, this aspect of Old Town Newhall has a ways to go in terms of being a destination. Dining is not currently the compelling anchor it should be, and entertainment and retail offerings are still evolving. However, with the envisioned changes to circulation, parking, and physical improvements, Old Town has very good potential to strengthen its destination appeal to the Santa Clarita market area." Note the words "very good potential" and "strengthen its destination appeal"... when you have an area with ZERO destination appeal to start with, what do you really need to do to "strengthen" it? By definition, this would be anything taking it to some point above the zero mark, which isn't saying a whole lot.So the big question remains: Why evict existing businesses in the Old Town Newhall area, using eminent domain in many cases, for a project that doesn't show excellent potential? Several businesses have already been notified that they must leave, with the <a title="Eminent Domain Threatened in Newhall" href="item/166823" target="_blank">threat of eminent domain</a> clearly mentioned in the notices that they received. Others, like the <a title="Assistance League of Santa Clarita" href="http://www.assistanceleague-alsc.org/" target="_blank">Assistance League of Santa Clarita</a>, have been told that they can stay (for now) but that they will not be allowed to obtain additional space in the area.Whew... this retail section covers a lot of territory! We've pretty much shot down the bulk of the retail study by eliminating most of the potential stores as well as the movie theatre, and most likely the fitness center as well. In the next installments, we'll look at the concept of "sales leakage" out of the Santa Clarita area, developers, a final review of the income projections for the area, and other items not specifically addressed in the ROA but are clearly part of the overall <a title="Old Town Newhall Revitalization Plan" href="http://www.oldtownnewhall.com/city/otn/development/index.php" target="_blank">Old Town Newhall Revitalization Plan</a>. 9 application/xml false boutique downtown newhall eminent domain lifestyle merchant newhall old town newhall redevelopment retail opportunities analysis retail sales retail store revitalization santa clarita shopping center upscale retail valencia town center Old Town Newhall: Big Box, Medium Box, Anyone? A look a the larger retail stores considered for the Old Town Newhall Redevelopment Area. item/167331 Old Town Newhall: Creating a Boutique Environment and Attracting Shoppers Attracting out-of-area shoppers is critical to this plan's survival. item/167169 Old Town Newhall: Local Businesses Targeted for Removal Only retail merchants with "acceptable sales levels" to remain. item/166907 Old Town Newhall Revitalization Project Review of the Retail Opportunities Analysis: Does this plan make sense? item/166793 Santa Clarita Sends Out Threatening Eminent Domain Letters "Get Lost!" letters sent to many Newhall businesses. item/166823 The Last Holdout in Old Town Newhall Every man (or home) is an island, right? item/167118 Fighting Eminent Domain What can Newhall area businesses and homeowners do to fight the eminent domain process? item/166834 Chain-type retailers were identified as "potentials" solely based on their limited presence in the region. 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