Old Town Newhall Revitalization Project

I've been reviewing the documentation on the Old Town Newhall Revitalization Project for a while now, and frankly I’m concerned about this project from a retail development viewpoint as it’s presented in the Retail Opportunities Analysis dated December 2006. While the sketches for the redevelopment of Downtown Newhall are certainly appealing, the financial study as related to the businesses in the area, which will be converted to mostly retail according to the plan, appears to be quite flawed. Although this is intended to be a 10-15 year project, there needs to be some degree of reasonableness from the outset in order for this project to make sense.

The Retail Opportunities Analysis (ROA) performed by Gary Stoffel & Associates and DMG Associates dated December 2006 attempts to analyze the retail opportunities of the area in order to justify the tearing down and rebuilding of Old Town Newhall as a "boutique" shopping district that they want us to believe will draw shoppers from as much as 15 minutes away on a regular basis rather than just the short hops of the local residents. The ROA is very clear in stating that the demographics of the immediate neighborhood will not support this "boutique" shopping district, and that they would need to draw shoppers from surrounding areas in order to survive. In expanding the scope to the supposed 15-minute drive time, the ROA claims that an additional 183,000 potential shoppers will be added to the mix.

The main focus of the study is to increase the level of retail sales to the area, and the Retail Opportunities Analysis is very specific in stating that:

• "The recommended tenant mix would reduce the non-retail, auto related and service uses and attract specialty, dining and home furnishings."
• "Other aspects of this "target tenant mix" include:
  • Retain[ing] merchants who are currently producing acceptable sales levels."

• Local-Only Businesses Targeted for Removal
• Drive-By Assessments of Local Businesses… Flawed at Best!
• Creating a Boutique Environment
• Attracting Shoppers from an Extended Area
• Attracting Big-Box Retailers (or Not!)
• Medium-Box Potentials… Nothing Here Either!
• Local-Serving Anchors… Sufficient Representation in the Area Already
• Potential Upscale Retailers… The Short List
• Other Aspects of the Redevelopment Plan not Discussed in the Study

Remember that this proposed Revitalization Project will affect many businesses in the Newhall area, with many either being forced to move or to close their doors forever for lack of a reasonable place to relocate to. A huge percentage of these businesses are medical and other services that many of us have been loyal to for many years, and many are local retail businesses that likely won’t be able to survive the post-revitalization operating costs.

This is Part I of a multi-part series looking at the December 2006 study on the Old Town Newhall Revitalization Project. The next installment will take a look at how the Retail Opportunities Analysis proposes to handle existing local businesses in the redevelopment area of Old Town Newhall.